NAND flash contract prices surged sharply through the first half of 2026, with market researcher Counterpoint Research reporting the global NAND market grew 70% quarter-over-quarter in the second quarter, following 90% growth in the first quarter — growth driven 'almost entirely by rising prices rather than higher shipments,' according to TechPowerUp's summary of the data.
Separately, NAND Research's May 2026 update put NAND contract price increases at 70 to 75 percent quarter-over-quarter for the same period, alongside a 58 to 63 percent quarter-over-quarter rise in DRAM contract prices, and said it did not expect relief before the second half of 2027.
Why it matters
Storage prices affect nearly every category in this beat: Mac and Windows laptop base storage tiers, external SSDs, iPhone and iPad storage upgrade pricing, and even game consoles and handhelds that rely on NAND. Capital & Compute's analysis noted that a 2TB consumer SSD's price effectively doubled during the surge, a concrete illustration of how a component-level shortage translates into consumer sticker prices.
How it works
The core driver, according to multiple outlets, is AI data-center demand pulling enterprise-grade NAND out of the consumer supply chain. Capital & Compute cited Counterpoint Research figures showing enterprise SSDs accounted for 48% of all NAND bits shipped in the second quarter of 2026, up sharply from prior years, effectively competing directly with consumer SSD and laptop manufacturers for the same fabrication capacity.
How To Geek's September 2026 report, based on a visit to an SSD factory, described the price increases as tied to structural capacity decisions made by NAND manufacturers in prior years, compounding with the sudden new AI-driven demand spike in 2026. Servnet's NAND Flash Price Tracker, citing TrendForce data, described initial 2026 projections of a 33-38% quarter-over-quarter increase for the first quarter being exceeded as the rally accelerated through the first half of the year.
Evidence
The percentage figures cited above come from three independent research and trade sources — Counterpoint Research (via TechPowerUp), NAND Research, and TrendForce (via Servnet UK) — which broadly agree on the range of quarter-over-quarter increases even though the exact percentages differ slightly by source and quarter.
The competing read
Capital & Compute's analysis argued the surge was 'already slowing' by August 2026, suggesting the most acute phase of the price shock may have passed even if absolute prices remain elevated, a more optimistic near-term read than NAND Research's May 2026 forecast of no meaningful relief before the second half of 2027. The discrepancy likely reflects differing definitions of 'relief' — a slowdown in the rate of increase versus an actual reduction in prices.
What happens next
For Apple specifically, sustained NAND price pressure raises the cost of offering generous base storage — such as the 1TB starting configuration Apple introduced on the new M5 Pro and M5 Max MacBook Pro models — and could influence how aggressively Apple or PC makers discount storage upgrades heading into the 2026 holiday shopping season.